Florida's early vote is neck and neck by party, and one tracker calls it a "strong signal" for Republicans

With less than a week to go until the US midterm elections on 3 November, more than 3.3 million people in Florida have already cast their ballots, and registered Republicans have narrowly out-voted registered Democrats so far.

According to On Point Politics’ early vote tracker, which uses counts from state election offices as of 27 October, 3,306,855 ballots have been cast: 1,545,045 by mail and 1,761,810 in person.

Registered Republicans cast 40.0% of those ballots (1,324,033) and registered Democrats 39.3% (1,298,618). Independents and voters registered with other parties cast 20.7%. That gives Republicans a lead of 0.8 points by party registration.

Registration is not a vote

These figures show which voters have turned out, not how they voted. A registered Republican can vote for a Democrat, and the other way round, and Florida’s independents can go either way. The tracker itself says the party split “is not how they voted”.

Why the tracker calls it a signal

On Point’s own Senate forecast had expected the early vote to be at D +5.6 by this point, so the actual R +0.8 is about 6.3 points more Republican than its model predicted.

The tracker describes this as a “strong signal for Republicans” in Florida’s US Senate race. It estimates that if the gap holds, the race would move about 2.5 points towards the Republican, to R +5.8, compared with its forecast of R +3.3. The tracker’s model gives the Republican candidate a 72% chance of winning. These are On Point’s model estimates, not results.

Other trackers using different methods have published different numbers. Turnout on Election Day, which On Point expects to be about 45% of the total vote, could still change the picture.

The Senate race

The contest is a special election to fill the rest of Marco Rubio’s term, after he left the Senate to become US Secretary of State. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Ashley Moody, Florida’s former two-term attorney general, to the seat in January 2025, WPTV reports.

She is being challenged by the Democratic state representative Angie Nixon, a labour organiser from Jacksonville and a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. Neil Gillespie is also standing as an independent. The winner will serve two years, and the seat will be on the ballot again in 2028. Florida has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 2012.

The latest University of North Florida (UNF) poll, conducted on 12–19 October among 1,471 likely voters, put Moody ahead by 49% to 45%, with 5% undecided, Florida Politics reports. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.81 points. Moody led by 50% to 42% in UNF’s July survey.

Nixon led among voters registered with third parties or none by 50% to 35%, according to the poll. The pollsters expect Republicans’ registration advantage of more than 1.5 million voters to show up in turnout, and modelled an electorate that is 45% Republican, 33% Democratic and 22% other.